The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Stefanik’s withdrawal as UN Ambassador nominee

The determination by President Trump to retreat the information of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) arsenic UN Ambassador is astir the math.

In truthful galore ways.

Yes. There has been a choky House GOP bulk each Congress. And that was a factor. But not the lone one.

TRUMP ASKS STEFANIK TO WITHDRAW FROM UN AMBASSADOR CONTENTION OVER RAZOR-THIN HOUSE MAJORITY

In November, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said helium "begged and pleaded" with Mr. Trump not to enlistee immoderate much House members for his medication aft Mr. Trump drafted National Security Advisor and erstwhile Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) erstwhile Attorney General nominee and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Stefanik to service successful his administration. It was believed that the Senate was poised successful the adjacent week oregon 2 to corroborate Stefanik arsenic UN Ambassador. She would person resigned from the House immediately. But this would travel arsenic the GOP feared losing 1 if not 2 of those peculiar elections to win Gaetz and Waltz. Plus, if Stefanik resigned, it would instrumentality astir 3 months for a peculiar predetermination to deed successful upstate New York to capable her seat. And – due to the fact that of splintering successful the New York GOP – determination is interest that Republicans could suffer that spot successful a peculiar election.

But Fox is told that the occupation wasn’t truthful overmuch the imaginable of losing the peculiar predetermination successful upstate New York – but erstwhile the VACANCY for that spot would come.

The House is trying close present walk President Trump’s "big, beauteous bill." House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) backed disconnected the thought of advancing the measure earlier Easter.

It frankly volition instrumentality weeks if not a fewer much months to walk that bill.

Here’s the different problem:

Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) conscionable announced this week she is large and owed successful August.

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: SHOULD THE HOUSE ALLOW MEMBERS OF CONGRESS TO VOTE REMOTELY?

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is present sparring with Johnson implicit her program to spell implicit his caput and compel the House to let for distant voting for expectant oregon caller mothers. Luna and the co-sponsor of her resolution, Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), person spoken astatine magnitude astir however pugnacious it is to question and marque votes precocious successful a pregnancy. One root told Fox that Republicans could beryllium disquieted astir losing ANOTHER GOP subordinate if Cammack is unavailable for votes up of giving commencement – arsenic the House attempts to walk the "big, beauteous bill."

That, of course, presumes that Luna and Pettersen aren’t palmy with their inaugural to let for distant voting.

Here’s different issue:

The president besides indicated that Stefanik would instrumentality to the House GOP enactment array – though however is unclear. Stefanik antecedently served arsenic the House Republican Conference Chairwoman. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) present holds that position. Multiple elder House Republican sources told Fox each time earlier the withdrawal that they weren’t alert of thing going on. "I anticipation not," replied 1 subordinate of the House GOP encephalon spot erstwhile asked astir a imaginable withdrawal. And yet present President Trump is shoehorning Stefanik backmost into the GOP enactment erstwhile House Republican leaders appeared to person nary hint that the President was astir to yank Stefanik’s nomination.

DEMOCRATIC REP. RAUL GRIJALVA DEAD AT 77

Now, here’s thing which volition navigator your noodle.

This is wholly hypothetical. But worthy exploring.

The House is presently comprised of 431 members. There are 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. There are 4 vacancies.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) did not instrumentality office. Former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) resigned. Late Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) died.

Let’s conscionable accidental the Republicans – though improbable – suffer the 2 House peculiar elections successful Florida. With Democratic victories, the House would past person 433 members with 218 Republicans and 215 Democrats. Still 2 vacancies with the deaths of Turner and Grijalva.

But if the Senate confirmed Stefanik, and she resigned, the House would beryllium 217 Republicans and 215 Democrats with 3 vacancies: Stefanik, Turner and Grijalva.

However…

Had Turner and Grijalva lived, DEMOCRATS would person power of the House astatine 218-217 nether that scenario. And notably, the House has ne'er flipped successful the mediate of a Congress.

This is wherefore Johnson pleaded past November for Mr. Trump not to poach immoderate different Republicans from the House.